Cruise missiles are pounding Ukrainian cities, and an 8-mile-long column is moving from the North-West to Donbas. How are tanks, Javelins, and Stingers going to help? I don't get it.
The war has shifted from defense of Kyiv to attack of Russian positions in the East and South-East of Ukraine. The equipment that was once strategic no longer is.
As of today, April 14th, 2022, there's a quickly closing window to end this war in one fell swoop.
I am not a military expert and I do not know what is actually possible. But I know what conditions would be enough to end this war with a definitive Russian loss and early exit; Putin's humiliation.
- Blast the 8-mile-long column to oblivion. Likely going to be achieved with missiles rather than short-distance Javelins.
- Destroy the military airstrips, tank storage, and missile launchers in Crimea and Russia to the East.
(Valuyki here. Soloti here, and here. Novoozerne, Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy) - Sink the frigates in the Black Sea. If they were able to sink the flagship with Neptunes anti-ship missiles (here, here, here) which are derived from old Russian tech, imagine what can be done with modern ones.
- Level the military installations and fuel tanks in the port of Sevastopol.
- Remember that Ukraine cannot win a traditional war (tanks and artillery). Therefore, it must avoid entering one.
Additional information:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/neptune-ukraine-moskva/
- Tanks Get Destroyed By Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons: FGM-148 Javelin, AT4, BGM-71 TOW & SPG9 Vs Tanks
- How Powerful is Javelin Anti-Tank Missile
- What Artillery and Air Defense Does Ukraine Need Now?
- US Provides Anti-Ship Missiles to Ukraine
- Can the UK supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine?
- UK pledges new military aid to Ukraine
- Biden approves $800M in new military assistance for Ukraine
- Neptune's against the Black Sea Russian Navy
- Why Russia Faces a Growing Threat to Its Navy off Ukraine
The initial assessment was deemed so promising that the systems have now been flown to Nevada, USA, for more forensic examination."
"Ukraine war: Britain donates deadly Stormer armoured missile vehicles to Ukraine to blast Russian jets and helicopters
(Added 2022-04-22)
"The United States will provide more than 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, which are manufactured by AEVEX Aerospace, the Pentagon announced today."
(Added 2022-04-24)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Navy_ships
How many operational tanks does Russia have?
(Added 2022-05-06)
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-returns-black-sea-fleet-warships-to-ukraine-s-russian-occupied-crimea-50239593.html
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-has-lost-16-cruise-missiles-after-a-ukrainian-neptune-cruise-missile-hit-the-cruiser-moskva-50233811.html
List of Russian warships in the Black Sea
01 - Slava class cruiser Moskva (Project 1164).186m. 16 cruise missiles - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
02 - Admiral Grigorovich class frigate Admiral Essen - 125m. 8 Kalibr cruise missiles
03 - Admiral Grigorovich class frigate Admiral Makarov - 125m. 8 Kalibr cruise missiles - Damaged
04 - Krivak class frigate (Project 1135).124m
05 - Tapir class landing ship 'Saratov (BDK-65). 113m - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
06 - Tapir class landing ship 2 of 3.
07 - Tapir class landing ship 3 of 3.
08 - Ropucha class landing ship (Project 775). 113m - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
24 - Project 11770 Serna class landing craft - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
09 - Project 22160 patrol ship. 94m.
10 - Bora class hovercraft (Project 1239 Sivuch). 66m.
11 - Buyan-class corvette Vyshniy Volochek (Project 21631). 62m. 8 Kalibr cruise missiles
12 - Buyan-class corvette Ingushetia (Project 21631). 62m. 8 Kalibr cruise missiles
13 - Buyan-class corvette Grayvoron (Project 21631). 62m. 8 Kalibr cruise missiles
14 - Tarantul class corvette (Project 1241 Lightning-1). 56m.
15 - 1 of 3 Raptor class patrol boat (Project 03160) - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
16 - 2 of 3 Raptor class patrol boat (Project 03160) - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
17 - 3 of 3 Raptor class patrol boat (Project 03160) - Bottom of the sea (sunk)
18 - B-237 Kilo class diesel submarine Rostov-on-Don. 74m. 4 missiles
19 - B-262 Kilo class diesel submarine Stary Oskol. 74m. 4 missiles
20 - B-268 Kilo class diesel submarine Veliky Novgorod. 74m. 4 missiles
21 - B-271 Kilo class diesel submarine Kolpino. 74m. 4 missiles
22 - B-261 Kilo class diesel submarine Novorossiysk. 74m. 4 missiles.
23 - B-265 Kilo class diesel submarine Krasnodar. 74m. 4 missiles.
(Added 2022-05-13)
This is what is needed to take out Russian army resupply positions, cruise missile launchers, military airfields, and ships located at the Russian borders and the Black Sea.
https://eurasiantimes.com/evidence-appears-of-ukraine-using-modified-british-brimstone-missiles/
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-black-sea-fleet-submarines-183926101.html
(Added 2022-05-19)
https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-violating-spirit-montreux-using-civilian-ships-war
(Added 2022-05-23)
"Grueling battles on Ukraine’s eastern front fail to shift the war’s momentum."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/22/world/russia-ukraine-war/grueling-battles-on-ukraines-eastern-front-fail-to-shift-the-wars-momentum?smid=url-share
I'm not a military general. Maybe something escapes me. But it seems to me the current Ukrainian military focus on the Donbas is a fool's errand. The modern artillery should instead be mostly focused on cutting the Russian lines of communication in the North (everywhere in Belgorod in within artillery reach), once that is done, take back Izyum.
In the South, Ukraine needs to get long-range anti-ship missiles from the West and get them quickly to annihilate the Russian Black sea fleet, thereby denying the Western corridor to Odessa, re-establish the grain transportation routes, and leaving Crimea's military supply lines exposed.
Ukraine must not do the same mistake as the Russian did in underestimating the motivation of the Donetsk and Luhansk's People Militia. Russia will also entrench their positions deep in the East, leading to a protracted war of attrition that does not favor Ukraine.
The following would be excellent in shortening the war and saving lives:
U.S. Preparing Plan To Destroy Russia's Black Sea Fleet—Ukraine
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-black-sea-missiles-putin-gerashchenko-harpoon-1708449
(Added 2022-06-04)
Russian army obviously preparing an attack on Odessa and the opening of another front.
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1532820466657898497?s=20&t=lSmsHQ1ymWWF_T8KNa6y-g
This must be snuffed asap. I suggested an interdiction zone a week ago. https://twitter.com/JeanChr04044655/status/1530313952923910144?s=20&t=lSmsHQ1ymWWF_T8KNa6y-g
This becomes ever more important.
The belief that 4 short-ranged HIMARS are going to make a difference is ludicrous.
The best use that could be made of these HIMARS is to send them to Kharkiv to destroy Russian artillery there and cut the supply lines from Belgorod and then attack Russian forces around Izyum from the back.
What Ukraine needs immediately is a battery of Harpoons to sink the frigates and destroy the Sevastopol military infrastructures.
