Recession in the U.S/World forecasted for Q1-Q2 2020

Here's my prediction...

There will be a recession in the U.S/World forecasted for Q1-Q2 2020.

The yield curve reversal has been the most reliable predictor of recessions in the past 40 years. According to it, we should see reversal in the next few months, and a recession in 12 to 18 months. Stock-market buy opportunities should follow in 18 to 24 months from now.

Populism; modern root causes, and how to deal with it

Populism starts with distrust that is rooted in disinformation, and feelings over facts

• Study blames YouTube for rise in number of Flat Earthers
  http://flip.it/dSsqOY
  Message: the government lies to you...
  
• Anti-vaxxers
  https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/16/health/anti-vaccine-movement-history-pushback-intl/index.html
  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/03/vaccine-opponents-attack-us-science-panel?utm_source=newsfromscience%3Dflipboard%3Dflipboard2418895
  Message: the government wants to harm you... and it is your right to do whatever you want (with disregard to the consequences)
  
• Liberal democracies are especially vulnerable to disinformation because it does not restrict it. Alt-realities form into disinformation ghettos that make the adherents feel good about themselves. Populist politicians take advantage of this
  https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/08/03/how-the-grotesque-online-culture-wars-fuel-populism
  
• Feelings over facts
  https://www.economist.com/open-future/2019/06/21/the-political-nausea-when-feelings-replace-facts

How to Culture Jam a Populist in Four Easy Steps

By Andrés Miguel Rondón
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2017/01/20/culturejam/

"Because in one way, Trump and Chávez are identical: they are masters of Populism.
The recipe is universal. Find a wound common to many, someone to blame for it and a good story to tell. Mix it all together. Tell the wounded you know how they feel. That you found the bad guys. Label them: the minorities, the politicians, the businessmen. Cartoon them. As vermin, evil masterminds, flavourless hipsters, you name it. Then paint yourself as the saviour. Capture their imagination. Forget about policies and plans, just enrapture them with a good story. One that starts in anger and ends in vengeance. A vengeance they can participate in.
That’s how it becomes a movement. There’s something soothing in all that anger. Though full of hatred, it promises redemption. Populism can’t cure your suffering, but it can do something almost as good — better in some ways: it can build a satisfying narrative around it. A fictionalized account of your misery. A promise to make sense of your hurt. It is them. It’s been them all along."

Education is one of the solutions to populism

Finland is winning the war on fake news:

"Helsinki, Finland (CNN) – On a recent afternoon in Helsinki, a group of students gathered to hear a lecture on a subject that is far from a staple in most community college curriculums.

Standing in front of the classroom at Espoo Adult Education Centre, Jussi Toivanen worked his way through his PowerPoint presentation. A slide titled “Have you been hit by the Russian troll army?” included a checklist of methods used to deceive readers on social media: image and video manipulations, half-truths, intimidation and false profiles.

Another slide, featuring a diagram of a Twitter profile page, explained how to identify bots: look for stock photos, assess the volume of posts per day, check for inconsistent translations and a lack of personal information.

The lesson wrapped with a popular “deepfake” — highly realistic manipulated video or audio — of Barack Obama to highlight the challenges of the information war ahead.

The course is part of an anti-fake news initiative launched by Finland’s government in 2014 – two years before Russia meddled in the US elections – aimed at teaching residents, students, journalists and politicians how to counter false information designed to sow division."

"“What we want our students to do is … before they like or share in the social media they think twice – who has written this? Where has it been published? Can I find the same information from another source?” Kari Kivinen, director of Helsinki French-Finnish School and former secretary-general of the European Schools, told CNN.

He cautioned that it is a balancing act trying to make sure skepticism doesn’t give way to cynicism in students.

“It’s very annoying having to fact check everything, not being able to trust anything … or anyone on the internet,” said 15-year-old Tatu Tukiainen, one of the students in Uitto’s class. “I think we should try to put a stop to that.”

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2019/05/europe/finland-fake-news-intl/

Additional reading material:

(French)
https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/idees/540545/quel-avenir-pour-l-etat-de-droit

https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/idees/541386/etat-de-droit-democratie-et-populisme