We're now midway through 2022. Let's look back at my January predictions to see how I'm doing:
https://would-that-be-interesting-to-you.blogspot.com/2022/01/what-to-expect-of-2022.html
Most of my forecasts were bang-on. There was obviously the Putin war in Ukraine that came to change a few things but not all-in-all, quite happy with how everything held up.
Covid pandemic dies in 2022
In Hong Kong,
As stated, the terrible performance of Carrie Lam got her kicked-out of the opportunity of a second term by Beijing. As predicted, the free-press continues to be decimated (https://hongkongfp.com/2022/05/09/explainer-small-chinese-language-media-outlets-spring-up-as-hong-kongs-big-names-shut-down/)
My prediction of 0-2% GDP growth was confirmed by the HK government in May (https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3177651/hong-kong-downgrades-economic-forecast-2022-after)
2022, the first of China's lost 10 years?
A bit early to call this one out. Let's see how far ahead we are into China's doom by the end of the year.
In Quebec...
We're still a couple of months away from the start of the electoral process but... everything I said will turn out true.
In the U.S:
"Trump will NOT announce his run for the 2024 elections this year as doing so would limit his ability to use the funds he raises "on behalf of the Republican party" for personal purposes while he is dangling a potential bid. This is as close to a con as one can get without any legal implications! "
We actually know now that it is a bona fide scam ('Trump’s raising of $250m for fund that ‘did not exist’ suggests possible fraud').
"Rampant inflation of 2021 should abate in the second half of 2022 (probably set around 3.5-4.5%) as logistic issues are being resolved and buyers move from goods to services spending as Omicron recedes."
Ukraine war... move that to H1 2023
"For the world's sake, it would be good if Trump were found guilty of any of the number of crimes he is accused of in the first half of the year."
This is ever more pressing!
A quarter of Republicans view the Jan. 6 attack as justified (and they are wrong)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/16/quarter-republicans-view-jan-6-attack-justified
As the January 6th committee's hearings proceed, I am unfortunately left with greater fear than I had back then, as I don't think anyone had any clue as to how close we were of a U.S coup, and how willing Trump was to conduct it.
And now, reality-denying conspiracy theorists within the GOP are winning the primaries.
Trump and his coup-sters need to go to jail. Any other scenario would leave the saddening feeling of unaccountability, and frailty of the US democracy.
Various musings
"2022 might be the year of reckoning for Bitcoin and other virtual currencies. I would not mind. Until these digital currencies show what they are socially and economically useful; besides for speculation and to obfuscate criminal transactions, I will certainly abstain from investing my money there. It does not mean there is no money to be made; quite the opposite, there is tons of money to be made. BTW, drug lords make money too."
BAM!
