Saturday, June 06, 2020

Idiotie

Ecrire ca en 2020, c'est d'une idiotie incroyable...

http://alter.quebec/la-mondialisation-economique-et-le-virus/

La mondialisation économique et le virus

Antonin-Xavier Fournier et Philippe Münch, Le Devoir, 28 mars 2020

28 mars 2020

 

La crise planétaire provoquée par l’arrivée de la COVID-19 frappe de plein fouet le monde capitaliste dans lequel nous vivons : les Bourses s’effondrent, le chômage risque de devenir endémique et dans plusieurs pays les paiements d’hypothèque sont suspendus. Les banques centrales, déjà éprouvées par la crise systémique de 2008, semblent être à court de solutions, tout comme nos gouvernements. Bref, la crise sanitaire pourrait avoir de graves répercussions sociales et économiques et des conséquences importantes sur notre mode de vie et sur notre conception de l’organisation sociale. Sans nécessairement envisager les scénarios catastrophes et voir là une sorte de fin du monde bien hypothétique et pour le moins alarmiste, il est difficile de ne pas concevoir qu’il y aura un « avant » et un « après » l’année 2020, comme ce fut le cas en 1929 ou en 1939. Quelle insouciance que d’avoir imaginé que nous étions en quelque sorte immunisés contre les « pestes » de l’humanité.

Hier encore, la société de consommation, déjà vertement critiquée par Karl Marx il y a plus de 150 ans, était universellement célébrée. Aujourd’hui, on constate pourtant toute la fragilité et la futilité de ce mode de vie. Comment peut-on imaginer qu’il y a quelques jours à peine, on pensait distraitement vagabonder d’un pays à l’autre alors que la pandémie était pourtant déjà en route et probablement en marche sur tous les continents ? Pire encore, les moyens d’information nous avaient pourtant prévenus qu’une crise était à nos portes. Cette insouciance est-elle le résultat d’un désir inconscient de suicide collectif ; à l’image d’une société incapable d’endiguer sa propre destruction malgré l’évidence de son mal-être et de son aliénation ?

Karl Marx, le grand théoricien du socialisme, ne serait sans doute pas surpris de constater aujourd’hui encore les failles, déjà entrevues au XIXe siècle, de la société capitaliste dans laquelle nous vivons et qui a mené, d’une certaine manière, à la crise actuelle. Mais la critique de Marx ne s’arrêterait probablement pas uniquement à une « simple » remise en cause du système capitaliste, car les fondements de la propagation de la pandémie démontrent aussi les limites de l’État-nation à répondre efficacement à une problématique de l’ampleur de la COVID-19. N’oublions surtout pas que les théories marxistes ont une portée universaliste. Marx lui-même n’aurait sans doute pas vu d’un mauvais œil la création d’une forme d’autorité supranationale capable de réguler les grandes problématiques de l’État-nation.

Logique marchande et société de consommation

On le sait, la pandémie est, en partie, le résultat de la mondialisation et de l’interdépendance des marchés économiques. La libre circulation des marchandises et des individus n’a fait qu’accélérer le phénomène. Sans cette mondialisation économique, le virus de la COVID-19 aurait sans doute pu se limiter à une crise localisée. Malheureusement, la réaction des pays a été dominée par des impératifs économiques plutôt que par des impératifs de santé publique alors que c’est de la survie de l’humanité dont il était question. Pourquoi avoir tant tardé à agir sinon par la volonté d’amoindrir les effets économiques de la crise ? Sommes-nous à ce point aliénés que nous perdons toute forme de raison humaine ? La défense contre le virus est pourtant simple : confinement et restriction des échanges de toutes sortes… Fermer la frontière aux touristes américains ? Complexe et difficile nous répondent d’abord nos dirigeants subordonnant toujours leurs réflexions sociales aux exigences économiques.

Cette logique marchande cosmopolite qui fait primer les intérêts du grand capital sur ceux de la santé de la population est déjà critiquée par le jeune Marx qui, avec son acolyte Engels, va écrire le célèbre Manifeste qui souligne avec justesse les limites de la mondialisation : « Par l’exploitation du marché mondial, la bourgeoisie donne un caractère cosmopolite à la production et à la consommation de tous les pays. […] À la place des anciens besoins, satisfaits par les produits nationaux, naissent des besoins nouveaux réclamant pour leur satisfaction les produits des contrées et des climats les plus lointains. » Comment ne pas voir là les limites de la société dans laquelle nous vivons actuellement et l’incongruité de produire en Chine ce que nous achetons maintenant, au risque d’importer un virus létal.

 

Mais il y a plus, car la pandémie est peut-être surtout le résultat de la société de consommation dans laquelle nous vivons et que Marx entrevoit déjà avec une lucidité désarmante en 1844 dans ses Manuscrits : « Chaque homme cherche à susciter chez l’autre un nouveau besoin afin de le pousser à un nouveau sacrifice, de le précipiter dans une nouvelle dépendance, de le séduire par un nouveau genre de jouissance et par là de le ruiner économiquement. » N’est-ce pas exactement ce qui se produit présentement en 2020 avec ce que l’on nomme « l’industrie » du tourisme et qui pousse l’homme à sacrifier des besoins élémentaires pour découvrir les merveilles du monde ? « Les besoins humains sous le capitalisme » ont donc facilité l’exportation de la COVID-19 en créant de toutes pièces une nouvelle industrie, un nouveau genre de jouissance capable de propager, comme jamais dans l’histoire de l’humanité, les maladies de toutes sortes. Autrement dit, l’humain préfère aujourd’hui risquer sa vie plutôt que de renoncer à un besoin superficiel, prouvant par là que « chaque nouveau produit est en puissance un moyen de tromperie et de spoliation réciproques ».

Nouvelle Internationale socialiste ?

Dans ce contexte, plusieurs pays ont décrété l’état d’urgence et ont adopté une série de mesures extraordinaires, à commencer par la fermeture partielle ou intégrale des frontières aux ressortissants étrangers. L’Europe et l’Amérique s’enfoncent ainsi progressivement dans un confinement généralisé qui prend des allures de territoire assiégé. Les présidents Macron et Trump ont d’ailleurs qualifié cette crise mondiale sanitaire de « guerre » contre un « ennemi invisible ». Alors que plusieurs spécialistes annonçaient la fin de l’État-nation, avec le délitement de ses pouvoirs souverains par les forces transnationales issues d’un marché mondialisé, la pandémie aura ramené au-devant de la scène un acteur-clé : l’État et sa puissance régalienne de protection et de régulation.

Pour autant, Marx ne verrait pas d’un bon œil ces formes de repli national, qui portent en germe des dynamiques politiques régressives. À travers son œuvre, même s’il n’y a pas de théorie systématique de la nation, on retrouve ici et là quelques grandes lignes de sa conception politique. L’État-nation n’est pas une fin en soi. Il a été une forme politique au service de la bourgeoisie pour détruire la société féodale. La nation est par contre dépassée par les logiques d’un marché mondial qui entraîne une exploitation généralisée des travailleurs. C’est en ce sens que Marx affirme dans son Manifeste que les « ouvriers n’ont pas de patrie ». Et il ajoute dans L’idéologie allemande : « La grande industrie crée une classe dont les intérêts sont les mêmes dans toutes les nations. » En clair, l’asservissement moderne est le même partout. En raison de conditions sociales communes, il importe alors que les luttes ouvrières se coordonnent et s’internationalisent. Ces principes finiront par se matérialiser par la création en 1864 de la Première Internationale dans laquelle Marx jouera un rôle militant important notamment en rédigeant le programme de l’organisation.

Face à cette crise sans précédent, les tentations protectionnistes et nationalistes actuelles ne constitueraient pas une voie de sortie viable. Marx dénoncerait sans aucun doute les discours xénophobes de Trump qui évoquent un « virus étranger » et « chinois », confortant ainsi sa base partisane populiste avide de sécurité et de frontières fermes. Si un tel repli nationaliste improvisé et sans concertation avec les autres pays est non seulement susceptible d’alimenter les mouvements de la droite radicale, il ne permet surtout pas d’endiguer efficacement le virus ni d’encadrer les abus du capitalisme mondialisé. La propagation du virus à travers le monde, de l’Asie vers l’Amérique en passant par l’Europe, est le résultat d’une incapacité flagrante des nations à coopérer, à s’unir et à s’organiser ensemble. La nation est un refuge temporaire. Seule une action internationale concertée et solidaire aurait pu limiter l’épidémie à la Chine, voire à l’Asie. Mais les forces du grand capital, les intérêts nationaux ainsi que le désir de consommer et de voyager auront finalement permis au virus de se répandre de pays en pays, de continent en continent. Le virus a été mondialisé faute de solutions internationales.


Le projet marxiste passe ainsi par une gouvernance internationaliste avec des pouvoirs absolus pour défendre les intérêts de l’humanité, des 99 % qui subissent les effets dévastateurs de la crise sanitaire, climatique et économique. Marx aurait applaudi à la déclaration du directeur général de l’OMS, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus : « Ce coronavirus présente une menace sans précédent. Mais c’est aussi une occasion sans précédent de nous rassembler contre un ennemi commun, un ennemi de l’humanité. » En d’autres termes, « prolétaires de tous les pays, unissez-vous », aurait-il encore conclu.

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Carrie Lam has the Hong Kong protesters to thank for the lack of Covid-19 cases in the SAR

In an article published on April 17th in The Lancet, one of the oldest and most highly regarded medical journals, a group of scientists reported their findings on the impacts of a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 and influenza in Hong Kong[1].

The study revealed that “Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January”. The studies also highlighted that Covid-19 “might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19”, hinting that benefits in reducing transmissibility for one, would also impact the other’s.
Interestingly, it also revealed that Hong Kongers expressed that they widely lacked trust in the Hong Kong and mainland’s governments ability to handle the crisis, were avoiding crowded places, used face-masks, washed their hands, and avoided visiting the mainland. And all of these, as early as January 2020.

While Hong Kong had similar success in controlling Covid-19 as Taiwan and South-Korea, by implementing the same healthcare response measures, and this, in spite of the Hong Kong government’s every attempts to keep the borders open and discourage mask utilization, it faced a much larger challenge doing so as it shares a land border with the mainland, and sees a vastly greater number of Chinese passport carrying visitors[2].

Other articles were published attributing the success of Hong Kong being to the collective efforts of its population rather than those of the government[3].

It seems that all of these studies and commentaries failed to point out what I would call “the Wuhan elephant in the room”; the risk of Covid-19 contagion from the mainland was greatly reduced due to the fact that mainland visits had correspondingly been reduced since June 19, when massive protests debuted in Hong Kong.

Let us dig in the data that I got from the Hong Kong immigration department.


From the onset, we can observe that the mass protests and disturbances which started in June 2019 are clearly and directly correlated with the reduction of mainland Chinese tourism to Hong Kong. December 2019 Chinese passport carrying arrivals from mainland China were down 52% when compared to the same period in 2018. In January 2020, the decrease is even more staggering, at 63%.

However, if we want to capture the true extent of the risk that was actually adverted, we need to compare the January 2020 actuals with what would have been the expected number of mainland Chinese visitors, accounting for the previous years’ arrivals growth rate (about 15%).

When this is considered, we see that a forecasted 7.8 million mainland visitors turned into an actual 2.5 million, meaning that over 2/3 of these visitors did not cross the border in January 2020.
After much pressure from the medical sector and the population (strikes and other opposition movements), the HKSAR government finally shut most of the entry points to Hong Kong, which resulted in decrease of Chinese passport holders visits of 98.3% and 99.5% respectively in February and March, over the same months in 2019.

The low incidence of cases in Hong Kong also cannot be attributed to the Wuhan lockdown, as it started on January 23rd. That was far too late for it to be considered a significant explanation of the low cases incidence in Hong Kong.

As numerous studies have confirmed[4], the key to successfully control the epidemic is early action. It seems that in Hong Kong’s case, the 2019 protests had the unintended beneficial consequences, not only of having Hong Kongers distrust their government’s recommendations regarding non-usage of face masks, travel, and border closure, but also in greatly reducing the risk of contacts with infected visitors from the mainland.

Although it was due to different reasons, the data evidence is also corroborated in Macau which saw a 75% decrease in mainland Chinese visitors during the 2020 Lunar new year[5]. This was followed by a near-complete stop (-97.2%[6]) of all visits from mainland Chinese as China discontinued issuing single-day entry permit to the gaming enclave[7] on January 27th.

It is hard to put in numbers how many more Covid-19 cases would we been diagnosed in the H.K.S.A.R, had Hong Kongers not started protesting in June 2019 and mainlanders not significantly reduced their visits here as a result. However, it is plainly obvious that the effects of the protests in reducing risks did have a measurably more significant impact on southbound visits than any measures Carrie Lam’s administration begrudgingly took in the weeks that would follow…

 

 

 



[4] List studies about early detection


Tuesday, June 02, 2020

CCP's desperately trying to emulate Hong Kong by making Hainan the new Hong Kong

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-06-02/60-policies-about-hainans-planned-free-trade-port-101561993.html


China on Monday released a plan (link in Chinese) for building the southern island province of Hainan into a high level free trade port by 2050. The following are 60 key measures of the plan posted on an official social media account. A free trade port policy system is set to be “basically established” in Hainan by 2025 and grow “more mature” by 2035, according to the plan.

1.Personal income tax cap of 15% for eligible talent

2.Corporate income tax of 15% on encouraged industrial enterprises

3.Enterprises exempt from import duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax on imported production equipment for their own use

4.Enterprises exempt from import duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax on imported operational vehicles and yachts

5.Enterprises exempt from import duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax on raw and auxiliary materials imported for production

6.Enterprises exempt from import duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax on imported goods purchased by island residents

7.Increases the quota for offshore duty-free shopping to 100,000 yuan ($14,020) per person per year and increases the number of categories for duty-free products

8.Until 2025, enterprises will be exempt from corporate tax on income from new foreign direct investment for tourism, modern services and high-tech industry enterprises

9.Qualified capital expenditures eligible to receive full tax deductions or accelerated depreciation and amortization

10.Tax exemptions on imports and sales of overseas exhibits during exhibitions

11.Products originating from Hainan, including output products whose added value exceeds 30% after the domestic processing of imported intermediary products, are exempt from taxes when entering the rest of China

12.Allow flights in and out of Hainan to refuel with bonded aviation fuel

13.Export tax rebates on domestically built ships that are registered at Yangpu Port of China and engaged in international transport

14.Allow ships (those engaged in domestic and foreign trade) that transit at Yangpu Port of China to refuel with bonded fuel

15.Build Yangpu Port of China into an international port of registry

16.Adopt a trial policy of tax rebates at the port of departure on goods that use Yangpu Port of China as a transit port for final departure from China

17.Adopt an import and export management system featuring “free flow through the first line and efficient control at the second line” in Yangpu Port Bonded Area and other qualified zones

18.Allow high-level overseas universities and vocational colleges with specializations in science, engineering, agriculture and medicine to open branch schools independently in Hainan

19.Build Hainan into an island featuring innovative and international education

20.Establish a multifunctional free trade account system

21.Replace pre-audit with post-audit for the banking sector on authenticity review of cross-border and new international trade

22.Conduct the negative list of cross-border trade in services for Hainan Free Trade Port

23.Grant enterprises access to the market with a prior commitment

24.Conduct the special list of market access to the Hainan Free Trade Port

25.Conduct the negative list of foreign investment access to Hainan Free Trade Port

26.Treat domestic and foreign enterprises as equals in government procurement

27.Implement a more convenient visa-free entry policy

28.Salary ranges employed as main indices to evaluate talents

29.Conduct a negative list management system on the issuance of work permits for foreign employees

30.Permit foreign personnel to serve as legal representatives in legal bodies, public institutions and state-owned enterprises

31.Remove restrictions on overseas ship and aircraft financing

32.Decentralize the registration management of foreign debts issued by enterprises to Hainan

33.Expand the scope of cross-border asset transfer

34.Prioritize the support of listing Chinese enterprises overseas

35.Allow enterprises listed overseas to handle foreign exchange registration directly at banks

36.Establish Hainan International Intellectual Property Rights Exchange

37.Support overseas securities, funds, and futures institutions to set up wholly-owned or jointly-owned institutes in Hainan

38.Support the establishment of property insurance, life insurance and reinsurance companies, mutual insurance organizations and self-insurance companies

39.Support to develop cross-border medical insurance products in cooperation with overseas institutions

40.Support the construction of trading venues for international energy, shipping, property rights and equity stakes

41.Enable nonresidents to participate in trading and fund settlement at trading venues

42.Develop over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives services

43.Conduct cross-border asset management services

44.Issue Hainan provincial bonds globally

45.Open up value-added telecommunications services

46.Conduct services of online data processing and transaction processing

47.Open up basic telecommunications services in a safe and orderly fashion

48.Conduct the International Internet Data Interaction Pilot Project

49.Expand air traffic rights, including the Fifth Freedom and Seventh Freedom

50.Build an international aviation hub

51.Build a new international land and sea transport hub to connect Western China with the world

52.Build a regional medical center

53.Build a national base featuring China’s blockchain technology and industrial innovation

54.Build a pilot zone for cruise tourism

55.Build a pilot zone for reform, development and innovation of the yacht industry

56.Build Hainan into an International Design Island

57.Build a national Sino-foreign culture and trade exchange base

58.Authorize the Hainan government to manage and adjust the use of cultivated land, permanent basic farmland, forestland and land for construction

59.Grant greater autonomy to various industry organizations

60.Formulate laws and regulations based on the reality of Hainan’s free trade port construction


Carrrie Lam's letter to Hong Kong; disgusting...

https://hongkongfp.com/2020/05/29/letter-to-hong-kong-from-carrie-lam/ 

Disgusting falsehoods from Hong Kong's least popular C.E.

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Flexibility of smaller, more fuel efficient planes trump behemoths

I remember, 14 years ago, when I was doing my MBA in Ottawa, I had a discussion with one of my professors; I was convinced that the large planes with 500+ passengers were the way of the future due to the boom in travel.

My point was that these cost so much to that it will be harder for aircraft vendors and airlines to upgrade, and as such, smaller planes would be always beat them on operational efficiency.

Furthermore, travelers are increasingly more interested in exotic destinations which require point-to-point service, something that huge planes are not good at.

Another point he was making was that airports would become the limiting factor as the number of movements would limit their ability to grow and this would therefore support the rationale for larger planes.
I didn't think this was a good argument either as the incentives for larger planes are with the airports, not the airlines and there's no clear reason why the airports would be able to pass the incentives to the airlines in a realistic way .

So, now, almost 15 years later, it seems that history proved me right; airports are much larger, and behemoth planes are on the way out. 


Russia was dabling with the idea of a massive Sukhoi KR-860. It would have been a gigantic failure...

U.S. Senate Passes Bill That Could Delist Chinese Companies

May 21st, 2020

(Bloomberg) — The Senate overwhelmingly approved legislation Wednesday that could lead to Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. being barred from listing on U.S. stock exchanges amid increasingly tense relations between the world’s two largest economies.

The bill, introduced by Senator John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana, and Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, was approved by unanimous consent and would require companies to certify that they are not under the control of a foreign government.

U.S. lawmakers have raised red flags over the billions of dollars flowing into some of China’s largest corporations, much of it from pension funds and college endowments in search of fat investment returns. Alarm has grown in particular that American money is bankrolling efforts by the country’s technology giants to develop leading positions in everything from artificial intelligence and autonomous driving to internet data collection.

Shares in some of the biggest U.S.-listed Chinese firms, including Baidu and Alibaba, slid Thursday in New York while the broader market gained.

If a company can’t show that it is not under such control or the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB, isn’t able to audit the company for three consecutive years to determine that it is not under the control of a foreign government, the company’s securities would be banned from the exchanges.

“I do not want to get into a new Cold War,” Kennedy said on the Senate floor, adding that he wants “China to play by the rules.”

“Publicly listed companies should all be held to the same standards, and this bill makes common sense changes to level the playing field and give investors the transparency they need to make informed decisions,” Van Hollen said in a statement. “I’m proud that we were able to pass it today with overwhelming bipartisan support, and I urge our House colleagues to act quickly.”

Stricter U.S. oversight could potentially affect the future listing plans of major private Chinese corporations from Jack Ma’s Ant Financial Services Group to SoftBank-backed ByteDance Ltd. But since discussions on increased disclosure requirements began last year, many other Chinese companies have either listed in Hong Kong already or plan to do so, said James Hull, a Beijing-based analyst and portfolio manager with Hullx.

“All Chinese U.S.-listed entities are potentially impacted over the coming years,” he said. “Increased disclosure may hurt some smaller companies, but there’s been risk disclosures around PCAOB for a while now, so it shouldn’t be a shock to anyone.”

In a sign of broad support for the measure, Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, introduced a companion bill in that chamber. Sherman said in a statement that Nasdaq moved this week to delist China-based Luckin Coffee after executives at the company admitted fabricating $310 million in sales between April and December 2019.

“I commend our Senate counterparts for moving to address this critical issue,” Sherman said. “Had this legislation already been signed into law, U.S. investors in Luckin Coffee likely would have avoided billions of dollars in losses.”

House leaders are discussing the legislation — and a separate Senate-passed bill to sanction Chinese officials over human rights abuses against Muslim minorities — with lawmakers and members of the relevant committees, a Democratic aide said.

The Senate measure — S. 945 — is an example of the rising bipartisan pushback against China in Congress that had been building over trade and other issues. It has been amplified especially by Republicans as U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to blame China as the main culprit in the coronavirus pandemic.

Republican lawmakers have in recent weeks unleashed a torrent of legislation aimed at punishing China for not being more forthcoming with information or proactive in restricting travel as the coronavirus began to spread from the city of Wuhan, where it was first detected.

Trump escalated his rhetoric against China on Wednesday night, suggesting that leader Xi Jinping is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.”

“It all comes from the top,” Trump said in a series of tweets. He added that China was “desperate” to have former Vice President Joe Biden win the presidential race.

Kennedy told Fox Business on Tuesday that the bill would apply to U.S. exchanges such as Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.

“I would not turn my back on the Chinese Communist Party if they were two days dead,” Kennedy said. “They cheat. And I’ve got a bill to stop them from cheating.”

At issue is China’s longstanding refusal to allow the PCAOB to examine audits of firms whose shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and other U.S. platforms. The inspections by the little-known agency, which Congress stood up in 2002 in response to the massive Enron Corp. accounting scandal, are meant to prevent fraud and wrongdoing that could wipe out shareholders.

Since then China and the U.S. have been at odds on the issue even as companies including Alibaba and Baidu have raised billions of dollars selling shares in American markets. The long-simmering feud came to the forefront last year as Washington and Beijing clashed over broader trade and economic issues, and some in the White House have been urging Trump to take a harder line on the audit inspections.

Last week, Trump said in an interview on Fox Business that he’s “looking at” Chinese companies that trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges but do not follow U.S. accounting rules. Still, he said that cracking down could backfire and simply result in the firms moving to exchanges in London or Hong Kong.

While not technically part of the government, the PCAOB is overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The ability to inspect audits of Chinese firms that list in the U.S. is certain to come up at a roundtable that the SEC is holding July 9 on risks of investing in China and other emerging markets.

Senators Kevin Cramer, Tom Cotton, Bob Menendez, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott are also sponsors of the bill. Rubio applauded the passage of the Kennedy-Van Hollen bill and said it incorporated aspects of a similar bill he introduced last year.

“I was proud to work with Senator Kennedy on this important legislation that would protect American retail investors and pensioners from risky investments in fraudulent, opaque Chinese companies that are listed on U.S. exchanges and trade on over-the-counter markets,” Rubio said in a statement. “If Chinese companies want access to the U.S. capital markets, they must comply with American laws and regulations for financial transparency and accountability.”

According to the SEC, 224 U.S.-listed companies representing more than $1.8 trillion in combined market capitalization are located in countries where there are obstacles to PCAOB inspections of the kind this legislation mandates.

Saturday, May 02, 2020

Time to move the factory of the world somewhere else

The Covid-19 pandemic has shown that the Chinese Communist Party:


  • Cannot be trusted to be transparent even in times of crisis, thereby threatening the lives of millions of people, not only in China, but also everywhere else in the rest of the world
  • Is unwilling to play by the rules of global trade; stealing intellectual property whenever it suits its goals
  • Is a global propagandist and disinformation bully
  • Is unwilling to consider the introduction of true multi-party and universal suffrage for the citizen of China
  • Is leveraging its capitalist, globalization-driven economic gains of the past 30 years to impose its neo-imperialistic rule

Something must be done and the G7 countries would be well positioned to do so.
Majorly invest in upgrading infrastructures, education system, and supporting G7 countries p[rivate investment in India, with the goal of replacing China as the current 'factory of the world' with one which is going to play by the rules, and is a democracy.

(2020-06-06 update)
Seems that India got the message...


'India’s $6.6 Billion Incentive Program Challenges China in Manufacturing, Insiders Say
By He Shujing and Mo Yelin.

India’s new incentive program to entice global smartphone-makers to set up factories there will give it a long-term edge over China in competing for manufacturing, industry observers said.

Earlier this week, India’s government announced that it would set aside 500 billion rupees ($6.6 billion) over the next five years to bring in global companies to set up facilities to make products across the smartphone supply chain.

As part of the program, the government will offer subsidies to qualified companies equal to 4% to 6% of incremental sales of the goods they manufacture in India over the five-year period. It will also offer these companies subsidies on their capital expenditures on an identified list of products including electronics components and semiconductors.

The announcement came against a backdrop in which governments around the world are increasingly calling for their countries to reduce their dependency on China for manufacturing amid the Covid-19 pandemic that exposed risks in key supply chains. It also came as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has called for a more self-reliant India, has pushed for additional incentives to create more domestic manufacturing in an effort to create jobs.

The latest programs, which involve direct financial support, are much stronger than past policies that focused on increasing duties on imported goods as a way to support local production, said Tarun Pathak, an India-based analyst at Counterpoint Research. The new programs are also more aggressive, targeting high-value companies like contract manufacturing giant Foxconn and Chinese smartphone-makers such as Oppo and Vivo.

China remains the dominant player in the global supply chain for smartphone manufacturing, as nearly 65% of the world’s smartphones are assembled and directly shipped from the country to buyers around the world, according to Counterpoint.

But analysts said India’s latest programs will give the country a long-term edge over China in competing for manufacturing. India’s manufacturing capabilities in the smartphone industry have greatly improved over the past few years, Pathak said. In 2014, 70% of phones bought in India were imported. Now, 99% of the phones are assembled locally.

Adwait Mardikar, another India-based analyst who works for research group Canalys, said in an online seminar earlier this year that the Indian government’s policy push, along with multinationals’ strategies to mitigate supply chain risk, will make the country an attractive destination for manufacturers. “India will be a major manufacturer and exporter in the coming years,” Mardikar said, “and by the end of this decade, it might even rival China in terms of scale.”

Still, India has several weak spots that stand in the way of its goals, such as poor infrastructure and a lack of workers skilled in manufacturing, Pathak said.

Bloomberg contributed to this report.'

Friday, May 01, 2020

WHO Coronavirus tracking

China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO
Associated Press, June 2nd, 2020
https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae

'
Throughout January, the World Health Organization publicly praised China for what it called a speedy response to the new coronavirus. It repeatedly thanked the Chinese government for sharing the genetic map of the virus “immediately,” and said its work and commitment to transparency were “very impressive, and beyond words.”

But behind the scenes, it was a much different story, one of significant delays by China and considerable frustration among WHO officials over not getting the information they needed to fight the spread of the deadly virus, The Associated Press has found.

Despite the plaudits, China in fact sat on releasing the genetic map, or genome, of the virus for more than a week after three different government labs had fully decoded the information. Tight controls on information and competition within the Chinese public health system were to blame, according to dozens of interviews and internal documents.'

(...)

The recordings suggest that rather than colluding with China, as Trump declared, WHO was kept in the dark as China gave it the minimal information required by law. However, the agency did try to portray China in the best light, likely as a means to secure more information. And WHO experts genuinely thought Chinese scientists had done “a very good job” in detecting and decoding the virus, despite the lack of transparency from Chinese officials.

WHO staffers debated how to press China for gene sequences and detailed patient data without angering authorities, worried about losing access and getting Chinese scientists into trouble. Under international law, WHO is required to quickly share information and alerts with member countries about an evolving crisis. Galea noted WHO could not indulge China’s wish to sign off on information before telling other countries because “that is not respectful of our responsibilities.”

WHO chief says widespread travel bans not needed to beat China virus
Reuters, February 3rd, 2020
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZX1H3

'GENEVA (Reuters) - World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" in trying to halt the spread of a coronavirus that has killed 361 people in China.

"We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent," Tedros told the WHO executive board, reiterating his message from last week when he declared an international emergency.

China is facing increasing international isolation due to restrictions on flights to and from the country, and bans on travelers from China.

There have been 17,238 confirmed infections in China including 361 deaths, as well as 151 confirmed cases in 23 countries and 1 death which was reported from the Philippines on Sunday, Tendros added.

"Because of this strategy and it weren't for China, the number of cases outside China would have been very much higher," he said.

Referring to the virus' spread abroad, he said it was "minimal and slow", while warning that it could worsen.

Tedros, who held talks in Beijing a week ago with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders, coughed and interrupted his speech to take a drink of water, quipping: "Don't worry, it's not corona".

China's delegate took the floor at the WHO Executive Board and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the center of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.


"All these measures are seriously against recommendation by the WHO," said Li Song, who is China's ambassador for disarmament at the United Nations in Geneva.

China's regular Executive Board representative was unable to attend after her flight from Beijing was canceled, Chinese diplomats told reporters on Friday.

U.S. ambassador Andrew Bremberg said that the outbreak in two dozen countries required focused attention.

"We express our support, prayers, sympathy, and appreciation to the people of China and especially the health responders on the front lines, who are protecting not only their communities, but the world," Bremberg said.


"We are learning more about the virus every day and implementing appropriate public health measures, in keeping with WHO’s recommendations, to minimize the spread based on the best evidence available. The United States is committed to working with all partners to address this outbreak," he added.

Thursday, April 30, 2020

No Third Person - Christine Loh's turncoat CCP cheerleader?

https://asianreviewofbooks.com/content/abbreviated-press/no-third-person-rewriting-the-hong-kong-story-by-christine-loh-and-richard-cullen/













Loh dances around the main problem; it is not that Hong Kongers feel “non-Chinese” as much as they see what Xi Jinping has done. That’s the elephant in the room; a dictatorship with a much lower standard of living wants to take over political management of the S.A.R. 

This is extremely disingenuous; Hong Kongers are extremely proud and do not lack confidence. The facts are that the mainland has failed to show a compelling narrative. So, the CCP is bullying back Hong Kong into the fold of yet another Chinese city, which implies: corruption, pollution, low-level of sanitary/food safety, lower GDP per capita, terrible construction standards, less freedom, lower quality of healthcare, etc

The events of 2019-2020 have proven these statements by Loh to be naive at best...

Thursday, April 23, 2020

The depth of the 2020 depression



2020-04-30
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-04-30/chinas-manufacturing-activity-slumps-again-in-april-caixin-pmi-shows-101548780.html
'China’s Manufacturing Activity Slumps Again in April, Caixin PMI Shows

The recovery in China’s manufacturing sector in March appears to have been short lived with a Caixin-sponsored index of activity falling back into contractionary territory in April as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hurt both domestic and international demand

The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country’s manufacturing sector, fell to 49.4 in April from 50.1 the previous month, a report released Thursday showed. A number above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a reading below that signals a contraction. In February, the reading fell to 40.3, the fastest contraction in the index’s 16-year history as the Chinese economy stalled amid the Covid-19 outbreak.'

Although the domestic economy started to recover in March as the virus was brought under control, the rapid spread of the disease across other countries and regions disrupted international business and cratered global consumption, inflicting a further blow to Chinese companies. Although output continued to recover in April, export orders contracted for a fourth straight month and at a faster pace, with the reading at its weakest since December 2008 during the global financial crisis.

The sharp fall in export orders seriously hindered China’s economic recovery in April, although businesses were gradually getting back to work,” said Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin Insight Group. The survey of around 500 manufacturing enterprises was conducted from April 7 to April 22.

“Amid the second shockwave from the pandemic, the problems of low business confidence, shrinking employment and large inventories of industrial raw materials became more serious. A package of macroeconomic policies, as suggested in the April 17 Politburo meeting, must be implemented urgently. It is particularly necessary to aid weak links including small and midsize enterprises and personal incomes,” Zhong said.'

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/business/oil-bankruptcies-default/index.html
'The oil bankruptcies are just beginning. Here's who could be next

New York (CNN Business)The oil crash is blocking American frackers from accessing the cheap credit that fueled their prolific rise. That reversal of fortunes could prove fatal for overleveraged shale oil companies.

The downturn in the oil industry has laid bare just how much America's rise to superpower status in the energy world was made possible by easy money. Virtually unlimited borrowing allowed shale companies to dramatically ramp up production, whether that oil was needed or not.

Getting locked out of the junk bond market will tip the weakest players into bankruptcy, risking countless US jobs along the way. That's what happened during the last oil crash that began in 2015.

The looming oil patch bankruptcies underscore the fragile state of the boom-to-bust industry even before the coronavirus crisis.

"These companies were in trouble before COVID-19 happened," John Kempf, senior director at Fitch Ratings, told CNN Business. "After 2015 and 2016, they never really got their balance sheets back together. When stress came, they weren't prepared for it."
Despite a recent rebound, US oil prices have imploded by three-quarters since early January, to just $15 a barrel. The crash was driven by excess supply, especially from Russia and Saudi Arabia, and an unprecedented collapse in demand because of the coronavirus pandemic.

There's so much crude that the world is running out of space to store it all. That conundrum caused crude to tumble well below zero last week, marking the first instance of negative oil prices since futures launched in 1983.

$43 billion of energy junk bond defaults
Prices are so weak that Rystad Energy has warned that hundreds of US oil exploration and production companies could file for bankruptcy by the end of 2021.

The bankruptcy wave has already started. Earlier this month Whiting Petroleum (WLL) filed for bankruptcy, marking the first high profile Chapter 11 filing of the current crisis. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) joined the bankruptcy club on Sunday. Diamond, which provides offshore drilling rigs for Hess (HES), Occidental (OXY) and BP (BP), was posting losses months before the crisis.

Fitch Ratings is warning that more than $43 billion of high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in the energy sector will default in 2020. For context, that's nearly five times the sector's average level of defaults over the previous dozen years.
Moody's Investors Service cut its near-term oil price assumptions this week, forecasting that US oil prices will now average just $30 per barrel in 2020, a price too low for virtually any US shale oil company to turn a profit. Moody's sees US crude rising to just $40 in 2021.

"Financial risk is rising and likely to remain very high for all but the highest-rated oil and gas issuers," Moody's wrote in the report.'

2020-05-01
Is that dead cat still bouncing? Or maybe that's because there's a disproportionate amount of market capitalization in a few high-tech firms that are benefiting from stay-at-home.

New York Times

'The news is terrible but Wall Street just had its best month in decades.
Stocks fell on Thursday, giving up some of their gains from the day before, after reports that showed millions more Americans applied for weekly unemployment benefits and consumer spending collapsed.

The S&P 500 closed down nearly 1 percent. But it was a small retreat in an otherwise stellar month for Wall Street. Even with Thursday’s decline factored in, the S&P 500 had its best month since January 1987, a gain that came even as it became increasingly clear that the coronavirus crisis was pushing the United States into a dire economic downturn.

The nearly 13 percent gain this month means the S&P 500 is now up roughly 30 percent from its March 23 low. It’s a rally that has surprised even the most ardent bulls.

“Frankly, I’m shocked by the speed of the rally,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at the brokerage firm BTIG, who has been anticipating a rebound since before the rally began.

The rally, even in the face of crushing economic data, highlights investors’ confidence that things will return to normal sooner than they thought when stocks were collapsing in late February and early March.

Both the Federal government and the central bank have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy and financial markets, lockdown measures appear to be having some success in reducing rates of infection, and some states are laying out the conditions for reopening.

“Instead of now talking about shutting everything down we’re talking about opening it back up again,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist for private banking at Brown Brothers Harriman. “That’s a good change in the conversation.”

Some southern states have begun trying to return to normal, and bigger states such as New York and California have started laying out the conditions for reopening.

That doesn’t mean the economy is suddenly going to be back on track.

Markets tend to rebound far before any actual improvement in economic fundamentals is apparent, as investors buy shares based on expectations for what will happen later in the year, rather than the current climate. During the last recession, the stock market bottomed in March 2009. But the unemployment rate didn’t begin to drop until October of that year.

Top Wall Street economists expect the second-quarter economic data to look, well, cataclysmic. J.P. Morgan economists, for example, believe the American economy will shrink at a previously unthinkable 40 percent annual rate in the second quarter. The Congressional Budget Office thinks unemployment could hit 16 percent by the third quarter.

It’s also important to recognize that the current rally has been relatively narrow, with an outsize part of the gains for the S&P 500 index attributable to a handful of giant technology companies — Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. In April, these companies grew to account for roughly 20 percent of the total value of the S&P.

The rebound in shares of technology companies — in part because their businesses are seen as benefiting in various ways from stay-at-home orders — has been most evident in the Nasdaq composite, which has nearly erased all of its losses for 2020.'

'Stymied in Seeking Benefits, Millions of Unemployed Go Uncounted

With a flood of unemployment claims continuing to overwhelm many state agencies, economists say the job losses may be far worse than government tallies indicate.

The Labor Department said Thursday that 3.8 million workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the six-week total to 30 million. But researchers say that as the economy staggers under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of others have lost jobs but have yet to see benefits.

A study by the Economic Policy Institute found that roughly 50 percent more people than counted as filing claims in a recent four-week period may have qualified for benefits — with the difference representing those who were stymied in applying or didn’t even try because the process was too formidable.

“The problem is even bigger than the data suggest,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist with the institute, a left-leaning research group. “We’re undercounting the economic pain.”

Alexander Bick of Arizona State University and Adam Blandin of Virginia Commonwealth University found that 42 percent of those working in February had lost their jobs or suffered a reduction in earnings. By April 18, they found, up to eight million workers were unemployed but not reflected in the weekly claims data.

The difficulties at the state level largely flow from the sheer volume of claims, which few agencies were prepared to handle. Many were burdened by aging computer systems that were hard to reconfigure for new federal guidelines.

“We’ve known that the state unemployment insurance systems were not up to the task, yet those investments were not made,” Ms. Gould said. “The result is that the state systems are buckling under the weight of these claims.”

The crush of claims is a major reason — but not the only one — that states are backlogged. Frustrated applicants who refile their applications, some as many as 20 times, slow the system as processors weed out duplicates.

Millions who have managed to keep their jobs face salary cuts or furloughs, a sign of employers’ uncertainty. Given the trillions spent, “we would have hoped that federal efforts would have been more effective at stemming job losses,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.

Mr. Gapen said he expected the unemployment rate to hit 19.5 percent in April, a level unseen since the Depression.

The federal stimulus efforts include an additional $600 in weekly unemployment benefits through one program, known as Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation. Another, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, is aimed at independent contractors and so-called gig workers who don’t qualify for traditional unemployment coverage. Washington is also paying for 13 weeks of benefits once state payments run out, an initiative called Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation.

According to the Labor Department, all 50 states are paying the $600 weekly supplement, but only 23 have begun benefits under the program for independent contractors, and only nine have started the 13-week extended payments.'


2020-04-23
'Prior to this five-week stretch of 26.5 million initial jobless claims, there were already 7.1 million unemployed Americans as of March 13, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. When the figures are combined, it would equal more than 33 million unemployed, or a real unemployment rate of 20.6%—which would be the highest level since 1934.'

https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-april-23-2020-benefits-claims/

'Bank of England warns of worst contraction in centuries, as economic activity slumps - as it happened

UK purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data showed that Britain’s economy is shrinking at an unprecedented rate.
It was a similar tale in the eurozone data.'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/apr/23/uk-government-borrowing-covid-19-recession-pmi-us-jobless-claims-business-live

2020-04-02
SCMP

'
In February, friends Jay Wang and Zhou Ping were among the millions of Chinese manufacturers battling to resume production after the coronavirus outbreak shuttered key industrial sectors across the economy.

But when the pair finally managed to restart their separate operations last month, after rigorous quarantining of workers and disinfection of factory floors, they encountered an even bigger problem: clients from Europe and the United States were suspending orders as the pandemic spread throughout the rest of the world.

In late February, I took orders for more than 90,000 pairs of shoes, but 80,000 were cancelled last week,” said Wang, who like Zhou has run a factory in the industrial and export hub Dongguan in southern China for about a decade.

Both companies will ask most of their workforce to take leave on minimum wage in mid-April or May because of the worsening situation overseas.

“Many factories like us had already paid in advance to buy raw materials, and the current trend of increasing cancellations and postponements of orders increases risk and uncertainty,” Zhou said.

Dongguan, once a centre of labour-intensive manufacturers from shoes to electronics, started to lose its shine following the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 and it is no longer so appealing to China’s estimated 290 million rural migrant workers.


While the industrial hub was once thriving with commerce, rows of empty stores and restaurants, peppered with for lease and sale signs, are common features of the cityscape today.

(...)

The early impact of the virus on China’s economy was laid bare in recent economic data, which showed industrial production, investment and exports plunged in the double digits in the first two months of the year.

President Xi Jinping has said China, which exported US$2.5 trillion worth of products in 2019 – making it the world’s largest exporter – needs to work hard to ensure its position in the global value chain.


Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School, said last week that China was headed for a severe economic downturn due to its reliance on overseas markets.

China not only lacks food and oil but also a market for orders. Our per capita [gross domestic product] is about a fifth of that in the US and a quarter of Europe. China’s domestic purchasing power just cannot support our huge manufacturing capacity,” said Xu in a speech.

Slumping overseas demand is already beginning to ripple through Dongguan’s job market.
Li Dian and Zhang Qing – both in their 20s – arrived in the city from Hunan province, some eight hours drive to the north, to look for a “good factory” job offering a monthly salary of at least 4,000 yuan (US$563), a day off a week and free food and accommodation


As they stood in line at a recruitment agency office, they said they had already found wages were lower than last year, but they wanted to start work as soon as possible.'