https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3016689/thousands-gather-tamar-park-support-hong-kong-police-and
Now, as I did for the June 9th anti-extradition March, let's see how the organisers and police claim fare.
First, let's have a look at pictures taken from the gathering (it was not a march). Pictures credits to: China Daily, SCMP, various unnamed web locations...
It would seem that the density was quite good around the stage, maybe at 2.5 to 3 person/sqm. Probably more like 0.5 to 1 farther out on Tamar.
Let's first clear one thing up; 165,000 participants is a fabulation that is unrelated to any possible reality; even packing 4 people per sqm, covering the whole area of Tamar (which they weren't), and accounting for 20% of people coming and going, the absolute maximum number would be 130,000.
Here's how I calculated it:
https://www.mapchecking.com/#22.2833035,114.1658756;22.2833807,114.1659883;22.2832754,114.1665301;22.2832633,114.1666910;22.2829384,114.1666535;22.2825172,114.1665006;22.2824751,114.1662190;22.2821576,114.1661734;22.2819890,114.1662780;22.2816021,114.1660151;22.2812522,114.1658166;22.2808675,114.1656503;22.2803902,114.1654787;22.2805938,114.1651729;22.2810392,114.1652178;22.2813356,114.1652091;22.2817016,114.1653372;22.2820726,114.1654599;22.2824400,114.1656450;22.2825734,114.1651032;22.2832613,114.1651783;22.2831631,114.1657147;22.2831676,114.1657898;4;22.2822294,114.1652561,18
108,255 + 20% = about 130,000 absolute max
Now, let's try to assess the likely scenario:
Let's evaluate the section around the stage at a generous 3 person/sqm:
https://www.mapchecking.com/#22.2833512,114.1657844;22.2834108,114.1659829;22.2832768,114.1667769;22.2831080,114.1668681;22.2828946,114.1668627;22.2829591,114.1665086;22.2820656,114.1660849;22.2821301,114.1656879;3;22.2822294,114.1652561,18
and the rest of the space at a generous 1.7/sqm
https://www.mapchecking.com/#22.2822195,114.1655645;22.2820110,114.1662619;22.2808544,114.1656021;22.2807452,114.1655109;22.2805318,114.1654411;22.2806459,114.1650227;22.2817132,114.1653285;1.7;22.2822294,114.1652561,18
Which gives us 51,364 at the peak. Very close to the police's estimate of 53,000. Now, as we mentioned before, the HKPF measures peak attendance, not total attendance. Adding a more likely 10% to our count means that the likely total attendance was around 56 to 58 thousand people.
Let's give them 60 thousand for good measure...
