This essay does not aim to argue that Donald Trump is a
clear and present danger to the American republic and global democracy—there is
already ample evidence supporting that claim. If you are not convinced by now,
no further argument will sway you. Instead, the focus here is on whether
defeating Trump in 2024 will mark the end of the autocratic threat he embodies,
or whether another figure will rise to lead the MAGA movement. What lessons
must America learn, and what steps are necessary to ensure the resilience of
its democracy in the future?
First and foremost, it is essential to recognize that Trump will not run again after 2024. Recent polls show that a significant portion of the American public—between one-third and 60%—believes Trump is too old to serve as president today. In 2028, at 82 years old, it is highly unlikely that he will command significant electoral support, especially given his apparent cognitive decline. His father, Fred Trump, was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s at age 80, raising concerns about Trump's own mental acuity. But more importantly, a loss in the 2024 election would diminish his appeal. Even if his supporters believe the election was rigged, a defeat will reinforce the notion that Trump is never going to be able to return to power.
On September 22, 2024, Trump himself stated in an interview on *Full Measure* that he would not run again if he lost. Without the power of retribution he wielded as president (or now, as potential president), Trump's influence within the GOP will erode. Traditional conservative Republicans, who have long feared expressing their views due to Trump’s dominance, will likely reassert themselves, isolating the MAGA faction. Right-wing media, which has thrived on Trump’s provocations, will lose interest as he becomes politically irrelevant. Once Trump is labeled a loser, his brand will suffocate, and the GOP will have every incentive to bury him quickly, sidelining the MAGA wing and working to restore a functional Congress.
Trump may incite a few extremists to protest, but his personal interest in politics will fade once he can no longer benefit from it. Without the prospect of personal gain, his engagement will dwindle, and the courts, no longer pressured by his influence, will be freer to deliver deserved criminal convictions. This could put the final nail in the coffin of Trump’s political legacy, marking the end of his cult of personality.
The MAGA movement itself is a loose coalition of individuals united not by a coherent ideology, but by personal grievances. Trump’s ability to shape-shift, saying one thing today and the opposite tomorrow without ethical or moral concern, made him the perfect leader for this amorphous group. His followers, desperate for validation of their discontent, are willing to believe whatever narrative he crafts, contradictions and all. This explains the paradox of evangelical support for Trump, a man whose actions and values are the antithesis of what they claim to uphold.
Trump has become a symbol for those who feel they are losing their place in a rapidly changing world, offering them a safe space for their deepest resentments. He even claimed he would be their "retribution." But remove the leader who skillfully weaves these false narratives, and the movement unravels. No current other prominent figure can replicate what Trump has achieved. His unique skill set—decades of conning, bullying, and avoiding accountability—combined with his psychopathic tendencies, made him the ideal leader for MAGA. Very few people with such traits rise to the highest echelons of power, and even fewer parlay that into the presidency of a country with strong institutional checks and balances. There will be ample time to strengthen institutions to prevent the rise to power of another autocrat of his ilk.
What happens if Trump loses? While there may be some post-election unrest which will quickly be subdued as law-enforcement is now prepared. Trump, no longer protected by his office, will have no legal immunity. He will not go to trial over his baseless claims of a rigged 2024 election because he knows he has no chance of winning and will not want to spend his own money on legal battles.
At that point, America must focus on healing the wounds Trump inflicted to the Republic, and closing the legal loopholes that allowed an autocrat to subvert the Constitution with little accountability. History must reflect that the American democracy survived Trump’s relentless attacks. To solidify this, Trump must face legal consequences, demonstrating to the world that the rule of law is alive and well in the U.S., where even the president is not above it.
Reforms, such as limiting Supreme Court terms to 18 years
with regular replacements, as proposed by Joe Biden, would help reduce
partisanship in the judiciary.
Tightening the clear constitutional separation of powers. Holding social media platforms accountable for
promoting disinformation is another critical step.
Additionally, electoral
reforms that make presidential elections more reflective of universal suffrage
would strengthen the democratic process.
And finally, legislating that the
president does not have any immunity from prosecution for acts benefiting him
personally, would strengthen the U.S and international rule-of-law.
Any progress on these fronts would represent a significant
step toward forming a more perfect union.
P.S One unintended benefit of Trump’s defeat is that some of
the billionaires who sought to dismantle American democracy will lose their
political vehicle. Figures like Elon Musk can then return to building our
technological future, rather than undermining the social present.
